Counter Revolution

I decided to resume writing on political & other matters,  now by e-mail.  As many of you know, I used to mail out the CES "Software Circular" quarterly for many years (1984-99),  but that became too expensive & cumbersome.  And, I became entirely discouraged by all the setbacks those of us on the left have suffered since 1980.  I was also influenced by my poor health.

I am feeling somewhat more energetic these days,  and regret not having continued pushing in view of the even more disastrous direction things have taken.  While my health has improved somewhat,  the "poor" part has gotten worse,  so my efforts are necessarily limited.

As before,  my "hit list" includes those on Left, Right and Middle,  who I hope will be interested in the on-going national political struggle.  My opinions are, of course - as almost everyone knows,  commie-pinko-LEFT, Berkeley Radical,  and certain to be challenged by those of you who think otherwise. I feel debate and presentation of views are crucial to the health of the body politic.  Such activities also help us not get Alzheimer's or some other brain-death disease; consider it a personal health exercise.

For the time being, feel free to use the SOFTWARE CIRCULAR list (this list) in presenting your contrary, supporting or other views.  I've been considering setting up a California Expert Software website,  which would include this purpose,  but have been deterred by additional costs which I would find difficult to sustain.

In any event,  for this Quarter,  here goes:

STEALTH REVOLUTION

The most ominous thing that's happening is the slow-but-sure erosion of the New Deal and all that resulted from it.  We are the frogs who never jump out of the pot while the heat is slowly turned up.  (That's what happened to me in the stock market.)  Both Democrats and Republicans have participated, more or less gleefully, in tearing apart the Welfare State.  For that reason,  I predicted many years ago we were turning into a Third World Country,  and now I think we are almost there.

The division between have and have-not is greater than it has ever been in American history,  and getting sharper.  The worst part is that the haves are indifferent or even callous about the fate of the less successful.  Social Darwinism - but not by that name - is the prevailing philosophy,  expressed most clearly in the "Ultra-Capitalism" dominant around Wall St and in financial circles.

The instant election - TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5 - threatens to return a CONSERVATIVE/ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE majority in the Congress - forgetting about party labels.  Democrats,  led by Rep Gephardt and Sen Daschle,  have failed to challenge the ultra-conservative Bush Administration,  leaving the field open for Republican victory by default.  This is the further consequence of Bill Clinton's "triangulation" strategy,  which guides the  DLC and "centrist" Democrats further and further right.

What the R's say is true:  the Democrats have failed to present a program and a challenge to the electorate.  By "Democrats,"  I mean most of those currently in office,  and those who are party officials.  Paul Wellstone,  whose death I grieved,  was one of the very few who expressed what most rank and file Democrats believe and want.  In short,  the Democratic electorate is deprived of leadership.

What's generally true - despite the supposed lack of civility and excessive partisanship - is that the elected elite are more interested in holding the levers of power than in what's good for the country.  In other words,  we are being ruled by career politicians who have arranged things to keep themselves in power.  Proof:  the Congressional districts were gerrymandered last year by the major parties to provide "incumbent protection."  Result:  Just 14 "open seats",  of which only 6 (= 1.3%) are contested!

All of this, in my view, is part of the transition we undergoing from the American Republic to the American Empire.  A Canadian wrote a book,  "The New Romans",  ca 1965,  about the US; the title says it all.  Think about it:  DC is filled with boot-lickers and supplicants, greedy relatives, friends and hangers-on.  It's a scene that would make any Eastern potentate - say a Sultan or Pasha -  proud.  Why is it that, lately, relatives of the elect (wives, husbands, sons, daughters, etc) are appointed and elected themselves?  And, the same phenomenon is going on in the press, the arts and other fields.  We are becoming a nation of entrenched elites - guilds, aristocrats;  which means if you're out,  you're out forever.

The problem is simple:  the Tories have returned from Halifax,  and the American Revolution lacks any defense.  The result is also simple:  every State that went this route robbed its people,  and eventually collapsed from within.   Roman and British history should be very instructive to those who think nothing is wrong,  that Walter - as usual - is just delusional or worse.

Things move a lot faster these days,  than just a century ago, or in the days of Rome.  I think we are already seeing the beginning of the end:  in the triumphalism and over-reaching of the Bushies,  in the looming Baby Boomer retirements,  in government by 15-20% of the electorate,  in the harassment of the poor,  and the intolerance and self-righteousness which have again become popular.  None of these things omen well;  I predict a speedy collapse over the next 25 years or so.

If it happens, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.  I keep repeating what the conservative, existentialist philosopher Georges Santillana said:  "Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it."  Slog on, Sisyphus.

ELECTION LIES

What is also outrageous is how those who have the money,  can make something "true" by repeating it over and over.  There is very little challenge of these "truths" in the media,  which is dominated by the Center-Right Establishment.  The "liberal press" is one of those elections lies;  there's scarcely any left in this country.  You have to be a committed leftie,  like myself,  even to be aware of The Nation, People for the American Way, etc.  On the other hand,  I regularly receive pleas in the mail to support right-wing groups - CATO Institute, yesterday (fat chance!) -  and right-wing politicians, economists, pundits and whatever-else appear regularly in all the major media.  None of the major media,  not even the NYT and CNN,  allow much or any criticism or commentary from the left.  It's a rare day one sees a real leftie on CNN;  instead, we have the pablum substitute, "Crossfire,"  dominated by the DLC and ultra-right.

What will really happen to your stocks after Nov 5?  Check out today's Wall St Journal (WSJ) online,  where an analysis is presented on Page One.  They make no secret of the FACT that the stock market has done better under Democrats than Republicans.  (So, if the R's win,  don't expect a glorious "Santa Claus" rally.)  On the other hand,  BIG Pharmas (MERCK, LILLY, PFIZER) are likely to benefit,  because attempts to lower the costs of prescription drugs are likely to be squashed.  HMOs will do well under the R's, as premiums will be unregulated,  and there won't be any Patient's Bill of Rights.  So,  because common people pay more and more,  the big companies will profit more and more.  All of that goes straight into the pockets of the rich and powerful.

WSJ flatly states in that article,  Republicans are STILL the best friend of Big Business.  Maybe you forgot that?

I read WSJ every day,  and the NYT not as much.  I give WSJ credit for being clear and honest in their ultra-right (plutocrat) point-of-view.  I also give NYT credit for representing the Establishment Center,  however muddled it is,  all these years;  but, NYT is scarcely a voice of the left.

Some of the lies I heard today:  Mary Matalin repeating that Saddam Hussein has anthrax, small pox as well as other WMDs (absolutely hokum).  Various Republicans stating that the Bush Tax Cut stimulated the economy,  despite repeated studies summarized in WSJ that show the Bush Tax Cut has had no effect whatsoever.  Also, a recent study of tax cuts since the 1960s was reported in (? - senility strikes),  showing that tax-cut policies simply don't have any real effect on the economy.

More lies:  The supposed ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy with interest rate cuts - actually doesn't work most of the time, and it hasn't this time, either.  What does work?  SPENDING (fiscal stimulus) in bad times,  and MORE TAXES (fiscal restraint) in good times.  Is this a NEW finding?  NO - this has been clear at least since the 1930s.

Why does this happen?  Sorry, got to be a snob, here.  Most people are just too damn lazy and uninterested to find out the facts.  It's a lot easier to be a couch potato and spoon fed by your personal favorite news-babysitter.  Of course, the fat and overfed sooner or later die from the junk food diet.  Consider finding out the truth a life preserver.

HOOVERISM

I recommend to everyone to READ Arthur Schlesinger Jr's 1st volume on the Roosevelt era:  Crisis of the Old Order.  And, David Kennedy's Age of Roosevelt  (title?) about the same period.  Written from different points of view,  I found them very enlightening about what is happening now.  After reading them last year,  I came up with a predictive stock market model  for this year, which has been very accurate.  Both books are available at the BROOKINGS Community and major libraries.

STOCKS

Hold ON for dear life!

Yes, The Republicans have let MICROSOFT off the hook;  monopoly is alive, well and festering in America.  BUT,  the stock already went up over $2.60 in Friday after-hours trading,  and is probably fully valued.  Traders can make some money,  but the days of big tech rallies are over for quite a while.  Some of my stocks (e.g., Cienna, Tellabs) went up 20% or more in the last few days,  and I expect a big short-covering rally in techs Monday.  But, I can sell this stuff in under 15 seconds, too.

BUT,  there's an election and Fed meeting this week.  This could be a crazy week.  Good for FAST traders,  bad for everyone else.

I think people should think very carefully about what a Republican or Democratic win, or neither,  really means,  and make different lists accordingly.  However, my opinion is it is unlikely things will change very much,  unless the Ds are so unlucky as to lose the Senate.  If the Ds lose, the market will rally sharply,  BUT IT WILL BE A SUCKER RALLY (politely, BEAR TRAP).  The War in Iraq - almost certain in Jan-Feb if the Rs win - will kill the market for months.  If the Ds hang onto the Senate,  its stalemate, the market will go up slowly, but at least rise.  You have a better chance of NOT BEING FLEECED if the Ds are in charge, but it is only a chance.

So watch out. 

Last update: 11/02/2007

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