Software Circular, March 2003

California Expert Software

Truth is Everything

The Ides of March

March 15, 2003

Here we come to a date long held in Western cultures to be ominous. That it is, what with war looming in Iraq, unemployment, budget and trade deficits going up and up, while stock markets and our pocket books keep going down and down.

For the Romans, March 15 was TAX DAY, or, originally, the day on which citizens paid tribute to the King. Rulers are not much different today than 3,000 years ago, as desired displays of loyalty and appreciation soon turn into required payments. Julius Caesar did not have an accident in 44 BC; the sacrificial date was selected for its significance, as was the place - before Pompey’s image.

Our tax day has seemingly moved up a month, to April 15. Actually, this is a result of fooling with the calendar a few hundred years ago, when Julius Caesar’s version was thrown out in favor of Pope Gregory’s. This triumph of Christianity accommodating modern science was further modified during the post-revolutionary period in America. Otherwise, taxes would have been due in mid-winter, which didn’t suit early America’s farmer-settlers.

March 15 in ancient times was near or after the equinox, signifying SPRING. But, the ancients started the calendar in what is now December, before what is now the Winter Festival (or Christmas). They also didn’t count the days correctly, missing that 0.25 or so days each year, so every year the fixed calendar crept up while the equinox got later and later. [Doesn’t seem like much, but it really is .25 * 100 = 25 days every century.]

Confused? So am I, but I remember reading all about this long ago. Maybe one of you calendar experts can straighten me out on this. In the meantime, we all know from our Shakespeare that the Ides of March is a significant and threatening date. And so it is this year.

MARCH _M^A_DNE^S_S

March is a peculiar month for a lot of reasons. Right after the Ides, we have St Paddy’s Day on the 17^th. Remember St Patrick drove the snakes out of Ireland, which is maybe why President George W Bush wanted to attack Iraq that day. Most of us know Iraq is not Ireland, but they do begin with "I," and "Saddam" and "Snake" begin with "S". I guess that’s good enough for the world-geography-and leaders--challenged among us.

According David Firestone in the 3/12/2003 New York Times, "Frist Forsakes Deal Making to Focus on Party Principles." On that day, the Senate voted 52-46 to pass a non-binding resolution supporting Roe vs Wade, and then voted 64-33 to make "partial birth abortion" illegal. For the most part, the Democratic leadership (Daschle and Reed) voted with the Republicans. J Biden and aspiring Presidents Kerry and Edwards ABSTAINED from voting.

Sen Lott is grumbling things are not like the good old days, but does Sen Frist need deals when the loyal opposition is just so ... loyal? It does appear there is a core group of about 30-35 Senators who are actually Democrats.

Gov Dean is definitely gauche, in saying: "I’m here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party."

WARTIME BLUES

You know I’m against almost everything Mr. Bush is doing. I warned last Fall the 2002 election would count. I took a lot of flak for that, but guess what? The election was extremely Right.

Now, Dr Frist and the White House ideologues are working together to transform the government and the country. Here’s what they’re doing that I know about, so far:

They’re proposing to make seniors drop Medicare and pay for private HMO insurance, in order to get prescription drug coverage. The main result of this semi-privatization of Medicare is that poor seniors will get less or no medical care.

They’ve reduced the reimbursement rates for Medicare providers (doctors, hospitals, etc) TWICE - about 10% total - in the last year. Now, they want to restrict appeal rights in order to reduce the cost of processing denial of service appeals. The idea is that too many Medicare recipients (about 50%) are winning their cases, so HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson wants to appoint Bush-friendly arbitrators to settle things quickly and "fairly."

They want to reduce tax rates for the very rich (top 1%), and give a lot of benefits to those same people. However, not a penny to help out people being thrown off Medicaid and what’s left of welfare, thanks to broken State budgets.

Of course, the States are broke because the economy is broken. Unemployment is up, consumer confidence is down, and the stock market is really down.

And, this week coming, Mr. Bush is very likely to order the invasion and occupation of Iraq. This is estimated to cost over $100 billion, and will probably cost another $20 billion every year for an unforeseeable number of years.

This is what happens when you ignore your Cassandras. After 2,500 years, will you guys EVER learn?

STOCKS

Good Luck. I thought the war would flatten the market, and so it has. Chances are, this will be a 4^th BAD YEAR.

The last time this happened was 1929 - 1933. Things got better after FDR took office. But, it still took 26 years for the average 1929 investor to break even.

The stagflation of the 1970s ruined the market from 1974 through 1982. The average 1973 investor didn’t get even until 1986 or so, or maybe 1989.

According to the latest yes men George Bush hired, deficit increases won’t cause higher interest rates or inflation. I have to give this Administration credit, they discover new economic ideas almost every week. Now, if we could only be sure they were true.

My outlook is very sour. I think the Bushees could put us into a real, rip-roaring DEPRESSION in a year or two.

Remember, things don’t usually happen the same way twice, even if the general pattern is the same. And, bad things get you from where you are not looking (a Ninja heuristic).

I’m so sick about all this, that this is all I can write this month. Sorry.

Last update: 11/02/2007