Betwixt and Between

This is an unexpected September in an unexpected year.  We are in the midst of a hot Presidential campaign,  driven by an even hotter war in Iraq.  Working people are unusually subdued in their anger and frustration as unemployment remains high, and jobs move overseas.  We have a President attuned to right wing extremists,  who nevertheless seems pleasing to a lot of people.  This is a September not ready for Fall,  but unable to return to Summer.

The dizzy summer romance with Ahnold continues,  although with less ardor.  People are throwing their left-over vacation money to the political sponsors,  hoping for another month of Baywatch and Reality TV.  Because  Californians have given the candidates plenty of money,  they expect to be entertained in the manner to which they've become accustomed.

I am confused about all of it,  just like everyone else.  I propose to take just one step at a time to stop the spinning.  I think we can sort things out this way;  at least,  that's what they tell you to do when your car goes into a skid.  I am sure we will discover a greater meaning as we go along.

NO and Yes and NO

One thing I am sure about:  The California Recall is going to have a profound effect on the State, Republicans and the 2004 Elections.

Only 5 weeks remain until California's October 7 special election.  We haven't received the ballot books, arguments or candidate profiles.  We don't know where to vote.  Everything we know is what's on CNN.

This ginned-up election comes down to 3 decisions:  Recall the Governor, Choose another Governor and Decide whether to eliminate Affirmative Action Statistics.  I take these in reverse order.

VOTE NO ON PROP 54:  This is yet another Ward Connerly attack on minorities.  Frankly,  I don't understand Ward Connerly,  or the Republican claim that you hurt people by helping them.  To me,  the claims just sound like a complicated excuse for not helping anyone.  Maybe I feel that way because,  every time I see Mr. Connerly on TV,  he tells his story in a combative and paranoid manner.  I have the distinct impression that Mr. Connerly feels personally insulted, damaged and lessened every time Affirmative Action helps some one.

Connerly's Proposition 54 would prevent the collection of any statistics concerning race, gender, etc in California.  Without such information,  it would be impossible to apply for Federal grants that assist minorities,  or to identify where to direct programs for minorities.  In short,  administration of any program depending on those statistics would become impossible.

If Proposition 54 is put into effect,  ALL public and private assistance to minorities will have to end in a few years.  First, there would be no factual basis for providing such assistance due to mandated lack of information.  Second, those employed in such programs would have nothing to do since they could not legally administer (or not administer) the programs.  Third, at some point, the agencies carrying out Affirmative Action would be closed and their employees dismissed.

Of course, Prop 54 would not control Federal laws and activities.  So,  passage of Prop 54 sets up a Constitutional conflict over what Affirmative Action projects are State regulated.

Ward Connerly is a Regent of the University of California,  but so was Ronald Reagan.  We do hear all voices in California,  no matter how far they call from la-la land.  I do not advocate removing Mr. Connerly from the Regents,  but hope his will remain a voice in the wilderness.

Californians should be very wary of this technical issue, and VOTE NO.

VOTE YES ON BUSTAMANTE:  The recall race has evolved considerably.  Now there are really only 2 candidates who could win,  and another 2 who might be spoilers.  Then there are well known people like Pete Camejo and Arianna Huffington,  who might make an excellent Governor, and even solve a problem or two,  but just don't have a chance.

The Republican spoilers are Tom McClintock and Peter Ueberroth,  representing the extreme right and far right, respectively.  Neither of these men is representative of most Californians,  excepting hard-right Republican Californians in tune with President Bush.  If Arnold Schwarzenegger and one of these fellows retired from the race,  it is very doubtful the remaining candidate would get more than 25% of the vote.  This estimate is based how Mr Simon did last Fall,  noting that Mr Simon presented himself a Bush conservative.

So, we're down to it:  There's Bustamante and Schwarzenegger.

I've never watched a Terminator movie,   and so far haven't seen or heard anything Ahnold would do to terminate our problems.  Despite his "liberal" veneer,  Ahnold is a candidate without a policy.  He makes appearances,  but doesn't participate in debates.  He is against more taxes,  but insists he would not cut programs.  Sorry,  Ahnold just doesn't appeal to me.

Cruz Bustamante looks better now than before.  Maybe it's because he lives in Elk Grove,  just a short skip from here;  or maybe not,  because that's where a large number of Sacramento's police, sheriffs and similar types live.  Elk Grove does not abound with liberals, but it is new, boring, middle class.  It's where California lives these days.

It looks like Cruz has some sort of gimmick plan to fix the deficit,  or maybe it's just one of Hitch's McGuffins.  But,  then,  this whole election is a right-wing McGuffin,  so why not lard it on?  Otherwise,  I don't find Cruz' plans that different from the Guv's.  Practically speaking, either will do.

I do like the idea of having a Hispanic governor.  In some ways, electing Cruz is the worst thing you can do to the Republicans:  it hits them right in the prejudice place. Especially if Cruz defeats the super white male, Arnold, it might be as painful as castration without anesthesia.  Remember,  in the right winger's world,  male superiority is a critical component.

I am still worried about too many Casinos,  but it turns out no one is going my way on that one.  I am disappointed that the Lottery is here to stay, and the Casinos will only get bigger and BIGGER and BIGGER.

On PART TWO,  CRUZ IS THE MAN.

Finally,  VOTE NO ON RECALL:  As Groucho might have said, we get to the first party of the first part,  having considered the second party of the second part and gone to the third party as well.  HAVE A CIGAR,  and by the way,  $100 if you can tell me WHO IS BURIED IN GRANT'S TOMB?

Davis it is.  The Governor's arguments against the recall,  seconded by Senator Diane Feinstein, sound convincing to me.  This is just a disruptive power grab.  The far-right people,  like Darrell Issa, and King George, too, need to be taught a lesson about overreaching.

I was disgusted, distraught and stunned when George W Bush was appointed President.  I feel he is an illegitimate President,  even if he was legally seated.  The whole affair reminded me of Napoleon's grabbing the crown; impatient even with the ceremony he himself invented.

In Texas,  at the behest of Rep Tom Delay (formerly a bug exterminator,  you know, the guys who do termite reports),  Republicans are attempting to change the Congressional Districts.  Rep Delay wants to eliminate as many as 8 Democrats from the Texas delegation.  Note that every Congressional seat switched is worth TWO votes:  it takes one vote away from one party and gives it to the other party.  Thus,  the losing party has to find 2 votes from the non-aligned,  or one vote from the other side, to stay even.  8 seats is considered a massive defection,  and may take many elections to overcome.

This sort of thing needs to stop.

As I said,  I don't see a lot of difference between Cruz and Gray.  I don't think Gray Davis is a crook. I don't think his performance is sufficient to warrant a recall, but I don't think he deserves a medal of honor, either.  I don't think any harm is done by leaving the Governor in office until 2006.

So, VOTE NO ON THE RECALL.  I hope as a result of this experience Governor Davis will be less Gray for the rest of his term.

Dr Dean's Next Patient

Fmr Gov Howard Dean, MD appears to be our leading man.  He's on top in New Hampshire.  He may be besting Rep Gephardt in Iowa.  He's the favorite in California.  Suddenly,  even the other candidates and the media recognize he's out in front.  He's the Talk of the Town,  or Humpty Dumpty before the fall, however you prefer him.

Therein lies the greatest danger,  because the NH election is still FOUR MONTHS away and the California primary is 6 months from now, March 2, 2004.  Who knows what next Spring will bring?

I've endorsed Dr Dean,  and hope he manages to pass this test.  I think he could beat King George next year, if anyone can.  But,  it's going to be a hard row to hoe.  Here are some of the things I think Dr Dean has to start working on, NOW.

WUMCIY: Or, White Upper-Middle Class Internet Yuppies.  These are the folks who've responded in large numbers to Dr. Dean.  By and large,  they're a good fit with the good doctor.  They were also attracted to Sen. John McCain or Bill Bradley in 2000.  When the Big Boys waded into the 2000 primaries,  these folks dispersed and have been in hiding since.  Anyway, WUMCIYs are a problem for Dr. Dean because he has a lot of them,  and not much of anything else.

Minorities:  Noticeably missing from Dean rallies and appearances on TV are black, brown, red and yellow faces.  I am sure that, like most Democratic candidates,  Dr. Dean's heart is in the right place.  But,  there is that persistent lack of NON-ANGLO people in Dean's milieu.  I don't know how, but somehow,  Dr. Dean has to get endorsements and obvious presence from ethnic groups.

Labor:  Dick Gephardt almost has a lock on Labor,  but there is some wiggle room.  Dr. Dean needs to get a BIG LABOR endorsement,  or at least prevent Rep. Gephardt from getting it.  Labor on the sidelines is better than Labor manning someone else's campaign office.

Old Folks:  Where are they?  Lots of 20- and 30- somethings,  and some Boomers too, find themselves in the Dean camp.  But, on the whole,  there are not legions of Senior Citizens behind Dean.  Of course, maybe excepting a few like myself, Seniors are notorious computer illiterates and resistors.  Many of them spend too much time with pills, doctors, bad days and Nursing Homes to be immediately available to a Presidential campaign.  And, as usual,  Seniors are pushed aside by those more youthful when it comes to playing a meaningful campaign role.

These and other people have ONE THING IN COMMON:  NOT ON THE INTERNET.  To get support from these folks,  you have to mail them something,  knock on their doors or put a notorious 30 second sound byte in their eyes or ears.  You have to go to where they live.

So,  if Dr. Dean wants to win,  he has to start making HOUSE CALLS - not in New Hampshire or Iowa,  but in Watts,  East LA,  Fresno and, yes,  even Eureka, Redding and Sacramento.

August 31, 2003

Last update: 11/02/2007

© Copyright California Expert Software 2007

All rights reserved.