An Indeterminate Matrix

From the title, it should be obvious that I don't know the answer. But, what is the question? I don't know that exactly, either.

Let's start with the August 1, 2004 announcement by Homeland Security boss Tom Mr. Ridge that Al Qaeda is planning another attack on financial institutions in and near New York City and Washington, DC. The terrorist threat level was raised from YELLOW to ORANGE, and we are warned to be on the alert. This time, unlike the Memorial Day warning (hoax?), Mr. Ridge has let it be known that there are specific targets and plans which have been obtained from friends in Pakistan.

This announcement has caused quite a stir Back East, but there are mitigating circumstances. On August 2, CNBC's reporter, Maria Bartiromo, looked at the heightened security at the NYSE, and noted that it looked about the same as it had been a few months ago (when she was working the pre-market shift at the exchange). There are, however, a lot more reporters covering the threatened sites. Ms. Bartiromo also noted several times that her sources identified the Pakistani information as at least 2 years old. So, what's different?  Why now? Later in the day, it turned out the information was old, but according to the Pakistani source, had been reviewed and brought up to date recently. So, it was an Al Qaeda agent reviewing old reports on his computer that caused all the fuss. (What if my computerized articles would get as much attention?)

On August 3, the New York Times confirmed Ms Bartiromo's doubts in the following:

This morning, August 3, Tom Ridge was back on the air defending his threat level call, and denying the Sunday announcement was political. His view is that Al Qaeda may be planning something, but there ism no evidence of an immediate attack.

On August 1, Dr Howard Dean said he wasn't sure whether the security alarm was warranted, or was merely more politicking by the Bushies. After all, Ridge's elevation of the threat level was approved at the highest levels: the White House. Today, Dean was roundly condemned by Republicans and threat mongers, and even dismissed by the Kerry campaign. Poor Howard Dean was right about the United States not being made safer by Saddam Hussein's capture. Now, there's a good chance he's right about the threat level. But it doesn't matter; people are jumping all over him. Lemmings do not want to be dissuaded from their race to the cliffs and beyond.

Now, I hope the good Doctor is reading this, because I agree with him. At least, I agree that there's not enough evidence to support the Administration's claims, and there may be some evidence to the contrary. Whether Dr Dean is exactly right or not, there are many things to be considered. I would like you to consider what is going on with the terrorists and the government from a different points of view. I would like you to set aside whatever fear or respect Mr. Ridge has provoked, and love or hatred the terrorists may warrant. I would like you to consider coolly this war, and how it might be won, quite apart from any emotions. What I want to consider is the calculation taking place in the minds of strategists.

A Ninja's Plan

Let us first consider Samurai movies. A Samurai does not waste any movements. A Samurai does not do something that lacks honor, as defined in his moral code. In many respects, Al Qaeda operatives are like Samurai. They have a deep commitment to their version of Islam, and believe their acts are honorable.

Sometimes, in Samurai movies, there is a Ninja - a wizard warrior - who does things secretly and by stealth. Ninjas use knowledge and techniques not easily available to everyone, or which require years and years of training. Ninjas are masters of human psychology. Ninjas are feared and despised because they succeed where others fail, without regard for "moral codes"  or "honor." Ninjas reduce all combat and war to amorality, except for one value : winning. Ninjas stake their lives on winning (as in the Samurai Code of Bushido), so represent an intelligent version of the Law of the Jungle. For Ninjas, "might makes right" is revised to "survival (dominance) makes right."

A Ninja does not attack where you expect; he overcomes when and where you are not prepared. No one can be prepared for an attack everywhere and all the time, so sooner or later a determined Ninja will find a weak point. Ninjas are not given to suicide; they want to live for the next battle. Thus, a ninja will strike and withdraw, defeating his enemies with death by a thousand cuts. A Ninja uses stealth and deception, so often arrives under the cloak of darkness and walks in the shadows. Ninjas strike terror among those they attack, because they are unseen and unheard.

In some respects, top Al Qaeda strategists are like Ninjas, but they are not amoral because they are Muslims. Asian Ninjas, too, often believe variants of Buddhism or other philosophies. Some Mafia "hit men" also fall into this class of warrior, while professing Catholicism. Despite having religious and other "normal" beliefs, these people are experts at conducting warfare "by other means." They have a sense of what is their enemies' weakness, and they exploit it. They are not concerned with the Geneva (Western) Conventions which differentiate civilians and combatants, govern the treatment of Prisoners of War, and set the limits of "legitimate" warfare. In the warrior's way, none of that matters; only survival (= winning) does. This is the most important point to realize, because the U.S. government is unable to cope with it.

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda amounts to an organization of professional warriors; i.e., soldiers of fortune. They are mostly like the Samurai in their determination to win or die. If they have any weakness, it is that they are not all Ninjas. Al Qaeda members do not look at things coolly, as would Ninjas. For example, taking hostages is a potentially weak tactic unless enough of them are killed or they are successfully traded every time. If just one hostage is not killed, or escapes, or is traded for less than the original demand, the tactic breaks down and the credibility of the terrorists is impaired. So, while most civilized people are terrorized by hostage- taking, in the end hostages only serve very limited purposes.

Al Qaeda is most like a Ninja in being secretive. Jihadists pick targets carefully, and aim to have maximum effect using few resources. They are unlike Ninjas in being too willing to die for their cause, and not analyzing their circumstances dispassionately. Al Qaeda is filled with passion and honor.  Unfortunately, since modern warfare was introduced in the American Civil War, passion and honor lose wars even if they requite a personal demand for satisfaction. This is a key truth about Al Qaeda: the terrorists can nip at the heels of the First World, but they cannot defeat the West in open battle. Upon understanding this truth, people should have far less fear of the Islamic terrorists. Put another way, terrorism - the random act of violence - is their whole arsenal.

On the other hand, Al Qaeda cannot be defeated by armies. The terrorists know that, so do not make any open challenges. Islamic Jihad can only win if the West collapses of  its own will. This suggests that fear is one of Al Qaeda's main weapons. As the United States gradually turns into a fortress state, and the ideals of the Constitution are degraded, Al Qaeda wins that much little by little.

We are lucky that Al Qaeda is unable to think entirely like a Ninja, partly because it is weighed down by its Islamic ideology. A Ninja, for example, would use the recent elevated threat level as an occasion to attack elsewhere. For a Ninja, Homeland Security's publicity is verification that he's "got to them." They are rattled; flitting about like furious wasps near the nests they believe will be attacked. This is the time the Ninja attacks Long Beach, Portland or Seattle. But, Americans are lucky: that hasn't happened.

One thing is clear: Al Qaeda has found a weak link – oil. They have been attacking oil pipelines in Iraq, and Persian Gulf oil loading facilities. Undermining the supply of oil to the First World is just as effective for their purpose as hundreds of suicide bombers in Baghdad. If I were thinking like a Ninja, I would be keeping an eye on oil tankers, pipelines and oil terminals. The East Coast financial centers are yesterday's news.

Rigid Defense

Al Qaeda is fortunate in its enemies, because the Bush Administration seems incapable of "thinking out of the box." The Bushies react to threats just like trained dogs. The main thing is the Americans react, so actors like Al Qaeda are in charge.

This Administration cannot win the war against the Taliban, and Al Qaeda, and the Iraqi insurgency, because they are unwilling and unable to use the proper weapons of this war. In this respect, the Bushies are just as handicapped as Al Qaeda. Christian Crusaders and Islamic Jihadists have one thing in common: a fanatical, unbridled urge to injure and kill the enemy. They are blinded by their religious fervor.

If the American government wanted to defeat Al Qaeda, it could do so. The first step in such a war is 'getting out of the way;' i.e., pulling back one's troops and other obvious targets, making them less of a target. The next step is hiring Ninjas, who know how to turn Al Qaeda's efforts back on itself. For example, one might lure Al Qaeda into attacking decoys. A third, and vital step, is providing the means by which Islamic people can lead satisfying lives without fundamentalist theologies. Of course, the starting point for such efforts is giving up fundamentalism in the United States.

The United States is fighting a monster of its own creation. As in a science fiction movie, the monster lives in the American mind. There is no amount of steel and concrete that can defend against this parasite, because it is us. The way to free ourselves from the monster is by changing ourselves.

August 2, 2004

Last update: 11/13/2007

© Copyright California Expert Software 2007

All rights reserved.