Wiggle and Squirm

 

Today's scene is almost Medieval. In that era, it was preferred to slay one's enemies at an incurably sinful moment; for example and preferably, in the throes of gluttony or adultery or fornication. The satisfaction of such a murder was the certain knowledge the victim died in mortal sin, so would roast in Hell forever. Moreover, the murderer could later repent his sins at leisure.

So it is with the United States, now entertaining the world - especially its Islamic enemies - by its attempts to free itself from the clutches of Arab oil. The rest of us know the U.S. is hopelessly trapped, having indulged itself in SUVs, monstrous 4000 sq ft homes, chocolate and cheesy burgers. Americans cannot get off the tiger, lest they be eaten. It's hard to imagine the fear and exhilaration of those riding a tiger, those who, like the Roman Gladiators, live for the day, but know their fate. ("We who are about to die ...") Ironically, the situation encourages sinning, as the condemned will want all the more the things of this world. It's always like that in the last days of cities hopelessly under siege; living life in a day, an hour, finally a last minute.

The financial media are full of stories about the rapidly increasing prices of gasoline, alcohol and uranium, as well as a bunch of other commodities. The housing bubble - fueled by Dr. Greenspan's policies - is about over. Home prices have already started to decline in many parts of the United States, leaving some Johnny-come-lately get-rich-quick speculators holding the bag. (The big boys, as usual, have already cleaned off most of the table and left the game.) The American automobile industry is in full retreat. GM and maybe Ford, too, are near collapse. GM and many other companies have "under funded" employee pension plans - meaning they didn't put in enough money or they borrowed pension funds for other purposes - so employees will get little or nothing when they retire. (Corporate managers got their bonuses and perqs long ago, in cash; they're millionaires.)

Some people who read my website don't like this and related stories. They don't want to hear about the flooding of the coastal plains due to global warming. Maybe it is better, like the ostrich, to leave one's head in the sand, while the jackals eat your drumsticks. Perhaps it hurts less that way.

The March 10, 2006 (vol 311) issue of Science has many fascinating stories in it. For one, recent archaeological studies on Rapa Nui indicate that the Polynesians began their depredations almost as soon as they landed on the island. (p 1360) If there ever was Paradise on Rapa Nui, it was the party that went on and on until it ended. Another article concerns the mysterious end of Angkor (p1364), which now seems to have gone the way of the Maya: they mismanaged and ruined their environment.

For me, the most interesting letter was a summary of a longer article that had been submitted by the deceased scientist, William E. Parkins ("Fusion Power: Will it ever come?" Science 311 1380) In one of his last acts, Parkins estimates the cost of electricity generated by thermonuclear fusion at  $0.36/kwe, or more than 3-5 times currently acceptable costs. Based on his estimate, he believed no utility executive would invest in thermonuclear energy.

On the other hand, on UCTV last night, another physical scientist from UCSB (Univ. of California, Santa Barbara) estimated the cost of hydrogen powered vehicles, which are currently constructed for about $1 million each. He optimistically calculated that hydrogen fuel would run about $30-35/gasoline gallon initially, and might get down to about $10-12 per gallon in mass production. This did not take into account the huge costs of building hydrogen infrastructure, nor the possible increase in CO₂ emissions, if hydrogen were wrested from natural gas or even organic renewables rather than solar or wind generated electricity. In other words, he thought the so-called hydrogen economy was not feasible anytime sooner than 2035, if ever.

The stumbling block on the way to the hydrogen economy is the need for massive amounts of cheap electricity. Other than burning more coal, oil or natural gas to generate it, the only other sources are nuclear in nature. There are not enough sunny square feet or winds or waters which can generate the needed electricity by other methods. Fission power is limited by the availability of uranium, as well as the complexity of handling radioactive materials over long periods. Fission reactions can be made more efficient by the use of breeders; i.e., recycling nuclear fuels and using different fuel cycles. However, recycling increases the risk of nuclear proliferation.

Altogether, this leaves two alternatives: make fusion power practical, or give up modern civilization.