Cornered in Iraq

If anyone was not convinced before, surely they must be now, that the fighting in Iraq is getting cruder, not cleaner. The days of smart bomb TV pictures are over. We are back to the days of Vietnam, bunkers and body bags. The most recent beheadings demonstrate the cruel inhumanity of the Al Qaeda insurgents. Sooner or later, our soldiers will have to fight at the same level if they want to win - just as happened in the 1941-45 Pacific war against the Japanese. The Islamic Jihadists are dragging us into the mud, which is what they want.

Now President Putin is trying to move Russia back into the authoritarian mode, as a result of the Chechnyan suicide attack on a school. This is an ominous change, if it continues, for at least two reasons. First, it raises the possibility that Russia will disconnect from Europe and go back to being a Soviet-style anti-Western regime. If that happens, it would not be the first time Russia retreated from pro-Western reform into Asian reclusiveness. This could mark a resumption of surliness or hostility in Russo-American relations, which might redound to the United States disadvantage. After all, the Russians are sitting on a huge supply of oil which they sell to Europe and America, thereby reducing our dependence on Arab oil. If the terrorists succeed in ruining Russia's relations with the West, that would be a significant and long-lasting victory for them.

Second, it shows what happens to "democracies" under terrorist pressure. A lot of weak democracies could crumble into authoritarian regimes. After all, the United States became a near dictatorship during World War II, when many of our civil liberties and traditions were suspended. There were waves of hysteria during WWII and the Korean War which resulted in the persecution and imprisonment of thousands of people merely suspected of sympathy with real or imagined enemies. Lately, it is quite clear that Arabs, and people who look like Arabs, are getting hostile treatment, again without cause.

So, terrorism is an effective tactic. Al Jazeera has an article today saying just that.

What's an Imperialist country to do? The strategy Dr Dean, then Sen. Kerry, advocated won't work: our "allies" are not going to bail us out of Iraq. For instance, the German Foreign Minister was on TV Sunday, making it quite clear that Germany will not send any troops to Iraq. That's not a hard to understand position: why would you send your people to get killed in a fight you avoided?

There is one remaining option, which hasn't been tried. This is to get the Arab States to stop the slaughter. If they won't do that, our position should be to withdraw and let all hell break loose. We have to show our willingness to drop Iraq - and other Arab States - like a hot rock. This might encourage the Saudis, and maybe even the Iranians, to take an active role in resisting Islamic Jihadists and Al Qaeda. After all, one of Osama bin Laden's top goals is the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy.

I don't think the Arab States will manage this feat without a huge quid pro quo. That has to be settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This means a big change in American policy; it means being EVEN HANDED and not pro-Israeli. My view in this is almost exactly the opposite of what George W Bush expressed at the UN today. Bush thinks that by establishing Arab Democracies, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq, moderate Arabs will come to dominate Middle Eastern affairs. Those moderates would be willing to settle the Palestinian conflict on terms acceptable to Israel, which is to say that the moderates would come around to thinking like Westerners.

I don't think Bush's strategy has any chance of working. The Arabs are not going to give up 1300 years of Muslim religion. The Palestinians are not going to adopt Western attitudes overnight. So, it is just the reverse of Bush's statement: first must come settlement with the Palestinians, then, hopefully, we might get a reduction of Arab militancy.

I want to clarify what I believe about Osama's strategy. Osama and Al Qaeda hope to overthrow Western civilization altogether, and return to the days of the Caliphate. Please recall that Muslims nearly overran Europe about 700 years ago, but they were stopped at the gates of Vienna by the Hungarian King and patron, St Stephen. (That invasion is the reason there are Muslims in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Albania.) The conflict between Christians and Muslims persisted for hundreds of years, and resulted in the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in World War I. The 20^th century wars between the Greeks and Turks reflect that conflict. Islamic fundamentalists are still fighting those wars, hoping to regain the lands they believe are theirs.

It's clear that Islam cannot win a direct confrontation with the West. So, I think Osama has looked for weakness in the West's armor. He has found it in two places: oil and finance. If the oil supply to the West is stopped,  especially if it is stopped rapidly, the West will probably enter another Great Depression. That would render the Great Powers vulnerable to attack, or, at the very least, unable to hold onto their world-wide possessions. Such weakness would give Islamic Jihadists an opportunity to conquer and unite all the Muslim lands. This plot is especially enhanced by Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons, and now Iranian development of those weapons, which Islamicists believe will naturally fall into their hands. All this because we live off Arabian oil.

Related to oil is finance, because oil is bartered in dollars. I think Osama believes our financial markets are a house of cards. That is why they attacked the Trade Towers in New York. I doubt very much Al Qaeda strategists believe they can make a dent on the US or Europe by direct military attack. I doubt they think they can undermine the US economy by direct subversion. But, they can wreck our markets, particularly using the oil weapon. Those who died on September 11, 2001, and the hostages who are beheaded in a most grisly manner, are decoys, not the real action. What Al Qaeda is doing is Mao-Maoing us, a strategy Blacks used against Whites in Africa and in the United States. When  it works, people become terrified and feel inadequate; they may become paralyzed and unable to defend themselves properly. The answer to this strategy is NOT a massive military conquest. Our military action in Iraq helps Osama, by draining the US budget and economy.

The proper retaliation against Al Qaeda and Osama's dreams is this: (1) reducing dependence on Arab oil as quickly as possible, even at the cost of mild recession, and (2) avoiding any major fight. We need to reverse the current situation in which we offer big targets to an invisible enemy. We must become the invisible, and draw Al Qaeda out into the open.

I have no doubt the Islamic terrorists need to be defeated. But, it doesn't help to have a war against them. To defeat this gruesome and insidious enemy, the United States needs to turn its strategy on its head. We are going about everything backwards, thanks to Dick Cheney and his brain, Paul Wolfowitz, and their front man, George W Bush.