Historical Inertia

This is yet another advocacy of the Chaos Theory of History. "History," as I use the term, means human history, not the history of the Universe (Universal History). There is also a history of organic beings, of life, which is treated under the generic headings, Paleontology and Darwinian Evolution (Evolution for short). I claim that all of the historical processes involving the life forms we know about are chaotic. Moreover, I believe the underlying development of our Universe on the microscopic scale is chaotic, even if gravity forces the Universe into a regular, determined  pattern on the macro scale. The reconciliation of two different historical patterns, Chaos and Relativistic, is that somehow gravity and time (the constant speed of light) smooth out local events.

This essay is not about the grand scale of things, or about Paleontology. It is about human affairs, which are less than a speck in the space-time of our Universe. Like all microscopic things, human affairs are chaotic, not mechanically regular. (I note that a microscopically chaotic Universe is probably required to support the chaos of life forms.) Despite that, human affairs seem to be regular on short space-time scales. This implies a pseudo-seasonal theory of human affairs, phase changes happening on random time scales. Short run regularity is like Winter during which everything freezes into shape. The warmth of Spring inevitably follows, breaking up the frozen solids. Summer heat makes everything liquid, even gaseous, moving things far from last Winter's home. In Fall, things settle down, recombining

What we know of civilizations follows that seasonal pattern. Most great empires last about 500 years, the Chinese Empire being one of the few exceptions that lasted longer. (But, has China always been an Empire?) Counting their pre-Empire roots, Empires might last as long as a millennium. However long they last, civilizations come, civilizations go. One of the sensible questions posed in Carl Sagan's early work on the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) was 'what is the half-life of technical civilizations?' That is an important factor in our ability to find them, because it is only when the window of opportunity is open that breezes flow in and out.

One would suppose that intelligent creatures could engineer enduring, stable societies. After all, the bees and ants have accomplished that much. But, somehow, it isn't that way with Homo sapiens, perhaps because people are just too restless, too ambitious. Human beings the world over are not satisfied with whatever they have. They usually want more or better of something or other. They are voracious in their desires, which is, at once, the mechanism of their doing and undoing.

Despite the impetuous comings and goings of human beings, there is a regularity to History in the short run. As argued elsewhere, that regularity is the direct result of doing things habitually. Take, for example, the response of the United States to global climate change and the foreseeable on-going increase in the cost of energy. Add to those facts, the fact that the United States could dramatically reduce its oil imports and consumption - maybe by as much as 20% - by raising the CAFE. Response: very little or nothing. People are not dumping their gas guzzlers, the CAFE is not being raised, and very little of note is actually being done to reduce greenhouse gas production. Lobbyists for the auto industry even demanded the CAFE not be raised, saying that cars should instead be switched to alternative fuels. The Bandit government is pushing adding ethanol to gasoline, with three main effects: (1) cars get even less mileage from the fuel, (2) ethanol takes about as much oil to produce as the oil saved, and (3) the price of corn (hence food) is going up. Americans are actually willing to pay more, and risk a shortage of corn-based food products, to keep their SUVs on the road. I believe that is a fairly radical case of unwillingness to change. I think most Americans are simply unable to understand the problems, or believe the problems have anything to do with them, individually. The problems are too huge, so let the government do something about it, but this government is determined to do nothing except what helps its elite power base.

The underlying environmental realities will ignore whatever people believe about them, and continue their progress. Thus, at some future time there will be a showdown in which people will lose, simply because what is facing them is beyond human control. The motivating force that drives people to their fate is an unwillingness to change their lives. Sacrifice or any other inconvenience that brings on resistance to change is not at work; rather, people simply ignore whatever goads are applied and go their merry way. This is the basic Ostrich Response, justified by a Panglossian disposition.

The reason for Historical Inertia is that underlying processes are in operation. Only deliberate, concerted human action could change directions and outcomes.